INDIAN ENERGY SCENARIO
Hi friends, in this article I would like to discuss about our INDIAN ENERGY SCENARIO.
Coal dominates the energy mix in India, contributing to 55% of the total primary energy production. Over the years, there has been a marked increase in the share of natural gas in
primary energy production from 10% in 1994 to 13% in 1999. There has been a decline in the share of oil in primary energy production from 20% to 17% during the same period.
India has huge coal reserves, at least 84,396 Million tones of proven recoverable reserves. These amounts to almost 8.6% of the world reserves and it may last for about 235 years at the current Reserve to Production (R/P) ratio. In contrast, the world’s proven coal reserves are expected to last only for 204 years at the current R/P ratio.
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio- If the reserves remaining at the end of the year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that the remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that level.
India is the fourth largest producer of coal and lignite in the world. Coal production is concentrated in these states (Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Jharkhand, and West Bengal).
Oil accounts for about 33 % of India's total energy consumption. While India has invested considerable resources in this sector, the crude oil production has stagnated at around 32-33 million metric tonnes per year over the past decade. The majority of India's roughly 5.4 billion barrels in oil reserves are located in the Bombay High, upper Assam, Cambay, Krishna-Godavari, and Cauvery basins. India's average oil production level for 2002 was 793,000 barrels per day. The consumption continues to outstrip production and. about 70% of the total petroleum product demand is met by imports imposing a heavy burden on foreign exchange. India had net oil imports of over 1.2 million barrels per day in 2002. India’s annual current oil import bill is around Rs.80,000 crores. In terms of sector wise petroleum product consumption, transport accounts for 53% followed by domestic and industry with 18% and 17% respectively.
Natural Gas Supply:
Natural gas accounts for about 8 per cent of energy consumption in the country. The current demand for natural gas is about 96 million cubic metres per day (mcmd) as against availability of 67 mcmd. By 2007, the demand is expected to be around 200 mcmd. Natural gas reserves are estimated at 660 billion cubic meters.
Electrical Energy Supply:
The all India installed capacity of electric power generating stations under utilities was 1,07,973 MW as on 31st March 2003, consisting of 26,910 MW- hydro, 76,607 MW - thermal and 2,720 MW- nuclear and 1,736 MW- wind (Ministry of Power). The gross generation of power in the year 2002-2003 stood at 531 billion units (kWh).
Nuclear Power Supply:
Nuclear Power contributes to about 2.5 per cent of electricity generated in India. India has ten nuclear power reactors at five nuclear power stations producing electricity. More nuclear reactors have also been approved for construction.
Hydro Power Supply:
India is endowed with a vast and viable hydro potential for power generation of which only 15% has been harnessed so far. The share of hydropower in the country’s total generated units has steadily decreased and it presently stands at 25% as on 31st
March 2003. It is assessed that exploitable potential at 60% load factor is 84,000 MW.
Final Energy Consumption:
Final energy consumption is the actual energy demand at the user end. This is the difference between primary energy consumption and the losses that takes place in transport, transmission & distribution and refinement.
Energy Needs of Growing Economy:
Economic growth is desirable for developing countries, and energy is essential for economic growth. However, the relationship between economic growth and increased energy demand is not always a straightforward linear one. For example, under present conditions, a 6% increase in India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would impose an increased demand of 9 % on its energy sector. In this context, the ratio of energy demand to GDP is a useful indicator. A high ratio reflects energy dependence and a strong influence of energy on GDP growth. It is worthwhile to note that developed countries - by focusing on energy efficiency and lower energy-intensive routes - maintain their energy to GDP ratios at values of less than 1. The ratios for developing countries tend to be much higher.
Per Capita Energy Consumption:
The per capita energy consumption is too low for India as compared to developed countries. It is just 4% of USA and 20% of the world average. The per capita consumption is likely to grow in India with growth in economy thus increasing the energy demand.
Energy intensity is energy consumption per unit of GDP. Energy intensity indicates the development stage of the country. India’s energy intensity is 3.7 times of Japan, 1.55 times of USA, 1.47 times of Asia and 1.5 times of World average.
Long Term Energy Scenario-India:
Coal is the primary energy source for power production in India, generating approximately 70% of total domestic electricity. Energy demand in India is expected to increase over the next 10-15 years; although new oil and gas plants are planned, coal is expected to remain the dominant fuel for power generation. Despite significant increases in total installed capacity during the last decade, the gap between electricity supply and demand continues to increase. The resulting shortfall has had a negative impact on industrial output and economic growth. However, to meet expected future demand, indigenous coal production will need to be greatly expanded. Production currently stands at around 290 Million tonnes per year, but coal demand is expected to more than double by 2010. Indian coal is typically of poor quality; Coal imports will also need to increase dramatically to satisfy industrial and power generation requirements.
India's demand for petroleum products is likely to rise from 97.7 million tonnes in 2001-02 to around 139.95 million tonnes in 2006-07, according to projections of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. The plan document puts compound annual growth rate (CAGR) at 3.6 % during the plan period. Domestic crude oil production is likely to rise marginally from 32.03 million tonnes in 2001-02 to 33.97 million tonnes by the end of the 10thplan period (2006-07). Around 92% of India’s total oil demand by 2020 has to be met by imports.
India's natural gas production is likely to rise from 86.56 million cmpd in 2002-03 to 103.08 million cmpd in 2006-07. It is mainly based on the strength of a more than doubling of production by private operators to 38.25 mm cmpd.
India currently has a peak demand shortage of around 14% and an energy deficit of 8.4%. Keeping this in view and to maintain a GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 8% to 10%, the Government of India has very prudently set a target of 215,804 MW power generation capacity by March 2012 from the level of 100,010 MW as on March 2001, that is a capacity addition of 115,794 MW in the next 11 years.
In the area of nuclear power the objective is to achieve 20,000 MW of nuclear generation capacity by the year 2020.
This is the Energy scenario in India.