India is the Laggard in South Asia
The Political Scenario
If one has a look at South Asia one can conclude that India by the very nature of its size should have been the dominant power. India is a giant and dwarfs all the nations around it viz Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan. All these nations should have been in awe of India, but in real terms, none of them gives any weight or respect to India. All these nations see India as a lumbering giant with a weak leadership and despite its size as a nation that can be trifled with at will.
Examples abound and one will recollect that when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime Minister in 2003, Bangladesh Border guards killed nearly 15 troops of the BSF. There was no reaction from the Vajpayee government, whose deputy foreign minister parroted the comment " Bangladesh is our friend". Such a comment at the time with 15 soldiers shot dead looked obscene.
None of the nations consider India any great shakes as a power and know that whatever they do, India will not react as it does not have the political will and its armed forces are not so powerful as to strike fear in anybody's heart. People can realise, what the American reaction would have been in case 15 American servicemen would have been killed.
This is not all, but a puny nation like Lanka routinely arrests and detains hundreds of Indian fishermen every month. These poor persons are supposed to be fishing in Lanka territorial waters. This has been going on for decades and yet there has been no reaction from India. With the advent of Modi, one expected a more nationalist policy, yet the sequence of arrests and detention of Indian fishermen continues unabated.
Looking at Pakistan which is the bette noir for the Indians, the situation is worse. India is 5 times the size of Pakistan and logically a nation as small as Pakistan in comparison to India should be in some awe. Unfortunately, Pakistan treats India with disdain. It organizes terror activity against India, foments an uprising in Kashmir and harbors known terrorists and gangsters like Dawood Ibrahim and Azar Masoor and makes India look like a flabby giant unable to react. The Indians do not have the political will, nor the dominant firepower to subdue Pakistan and in a conflict on the western borders, one is not sure of a result. One has only to compare with China and USA to realize how impotent India is, as a power of any standing.
India and China
India's relations with China are bedeviled as the Indian political leadership right from the days of Nehru has been in awe of China. There is a lurking fear to antagonise China and yet, the Chinese treat India as a subsidiary power and do not consider it their equal. They occupied Tibet due to the folly of Jawaharlal Nehru and India is now paying the price for this massive historical mistake of Nehru.
China's contempt for India is apparent as it refuses to issue proper Visa to Indian nationals from Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir and insists that visa issued will only be stapled to the passport. In contrast, the Modi government developed cold feet in giving Visa to two Chinese dissidents to attend a conference at Dharamshala. The Chinese maps routinely show Kashmir as disputed territory and large areas of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh as parts of China. The Indian reaction is just a feeble protest. There is a lurking fear of China militarily and who is responsible for making India a subservient power militarily to China? It started from Nehru and that mistake is not rectified though Modi is in power. He has talked big, but on the ground, he has made no attempt to match China militarily.
China also supports the militant groups in the North East and the result is a live insurrection, that is ongoing for the last 60 years. One can recollect that AZ Phizo, raised the banner of revolt in 1955 and the problem remains unsolved. China also supports the Maoists rebellion in the heart of India in the states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, MP and Bihar and these so called Maoists, who profess the leadership of Mao is a force to reckon with. The Home Minster Rajnath Singh when taking over talked tough, but on the ground, the situation has not changed.
India was badly defeated in a war with China in 1962 and this has deeply affected the Indian psyche. The clock has continued to tick forward, but no India leader has made amends.
China Builds an Axis Against India
The Chinese have deep pockets and these add to the Chinese clout. They also have a vibrant military which is so powerful that even the no. 1 power in the world, America is wary of it. One can get an idea of the Chinese power as it flexes its muscles in the South China Sea, as it claims the entire Sea as a Chinese sphere of influence. In addition, it deploys almost 30 divisions in Tibet to keep India on tenterhooks. It also has been able to turn the traditional friendship of Nepal against India. The Maoists are a force in Nepal now and they are inimical to India. Nepal despite getting all the benefits from India is going more and more into the Chinese orbit. India has a visa-free regime with Nepal and a million Nepalese stay and work in India. In addition, India gives employment to the Gurkhas in the army, yet Nepal seems ungrateful as it needles India. The reason is that Nepal is aware that in a showdown with China, India will be browbeaten and despite Modi coming, he has failed to realize the mistake of Nehru in not building military power.
China - Pakistan Axis
For historical reasons and the furtherance of Hindu-Muslim conflict, Pakistan remains an antagonist state. It has sworn to bleed India with a 100 cuts and it is actively being supported by China, both militarily and economically. China is financing a massive economic corridor and spending nearly $50 billion on it. The corridor along the old Silk route is to be from Tibet, through Kashmir to Gwadar, the latest deep sea port that China is developing. India is a bystander.
Pakistan has also built up its military and has more than parity with the Indian armed forces. One will recollect that in 4 wars with Pakistan on the western front, the Indian armed forces have failed to make any penetration into Pakistan. Pakistan also cocks a fist to India as it runs training camps for terrorist training and sends them across the border. So many terror attacks have taken place that they are not worth recounting here. India is unable to react as the Indians do not have overwhelming military superiority. This is the key to the entire problem. Lack of decisive military power. That is the reason the Indians have not been able to carry out a surgical strike in Pakistan to eliminate Dawood and others like the USA did to Bin Laden.
Last word
Two aspects stand out that are the shackles to India as a regional power. First, is the lack of decisive political will. This attitude has continued right from the time of Nehru. I am afraid despite the arrival of Narendra Modi, there is no change on the ground.
Secondly, the Indian political leadership has not yet realised as brought out by Clausewitz that military power is an extension of the political aim. The Indian military does not have Military edge in South Asia. Until India matches China, this state of affairs will continue. One aspect of the political philosophy of Modi and the BJP is that finishing the Nehru-Gandhi family is more important than the geopolitical world status. That is the bane of India.
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