An important election has just taken place in Uttar Pradesh. This election was held for two seats to the Lok Sabha included a seat -Gorakhpur which was supposed to be a stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party.  In fact, the party has won the seat 7 consecutive times in a row and Gorakhpur was considered a bastion of the Bharatiya Janata Party. The chief minister himself has always treated Gorakhpur like his own backyard.

The results of these two by-elections have come as a surprise as the BJP has lost both the seats. Apart from the shouting, it appears the people have voted the BJP out of power in these two seats.   This has come as a shock to the BJP leadership which had been banking on a massive win in UP to form a government in the center.

The importance of Uttar Pradesh can we gauged from the fact that it sends 80 members of parliament from the state and last time the BJP had 72 of them. This even a loss of 25 or 30 seats in Uttar Pradesh would mean the BJP may not be able to form the government at the center.  As things stand the two parties,  the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj party have both joined hands together and the result has been a polarization of votes. This has led to the BJP losing both the seats.

The gang-up

If the two parties the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj party can join hands together during the 2019 election and by chance are able to win 50 or 60 seats the fat will be in the fire for the BJP. Another disconcerting idea is the fact that a similar alliance would be stitched up in MP and other states and one can safely say that the alarm bells are ringing for the BJP.

The defeat of the BJP does not mean that the Congress will come to power,  for the simple reason that the Congress party under Rahul Gandhi has performed very poorly in the elections and is a distant 3rd but what does stand to reason is that a grand alliance of opposition parties may well rout the BJP and that will not be a good thing for the country, because the only uniting force among the opposition is the anti-BJP rhetoric.

Apart from this anti-BJP rhetoric, they have no plan of development or any social change and have a one-point plan only to unseat the BJP from the seat of power.

In 2004

We can recollect that in 2004,  the BJP entered the elections confident of victory with the slogan" India shining ". Unfortunately, the people did not think India was shining and Vajpayee could not get a second term as the prime minister of India. It must be mentioned that Vajpayee during his term as the Prime Minister of India failed to fulfill his poll promises and reforms which he had been talking about all his life.  He did not move forward on the Uniform Civil Code, Article 370. and integration of Kashmir with India. The result was that he was defeated.

It was not a good thing because the man who came to power was worse than Vajpayee.  He was Manmohan Singh who let the country down by becoming Lakey of Sonia Gandhi and abdicated his responsibility as the leader of India. This was the period when India saw the maximum corruption. The situation looks somewhat similar.

Modi may bite the dust in the 2019 election and there is every chance that an opposition united on a one-point agent of removing Modi may come to power. But India will suffer because this disparate group will not be able to govern the country and there is a chance that India will once again go down into the pit of history.

It is a sad story but there is no doubt that Modi himself is responsible for the state of affairs. He had talked of development and he had talked of so many other things like one rank one pension, Uniform Civil Code, article 370, but he failed to keep his promises. The people remember and there is a chance that Modi may be a one-time Prime Minister.

Last word

History has a uncanny knack of repeating itself and I for one would not be surprised if Modi is defeated. It will be sad for the country because the alternative is worse but who will blame anybody other than Modi. He has to shoulder the blame because he has been wasting time on inconsequential items like Aadhar card linkages and could not stop the many banking scams that ran amuck like wild horses.

 


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