India China Equation: India is the Laggard
Introduction
India and China have been neighbours since the dawn of history. However, Tibet was the adjacent country and most times acted as a buffer between Indian and China. But China has always claimed Tibet as a part of China. Tibetan leaders at various stages have accepted the suzerainty of China though for small periods Tibet did have an independent existence.
In 1947 when the British departed from India they left behind the imprint of great power status in Asia. Nehru and India donned the mantle of this power status and logically India should have used it as a springboard to be a world power. The British during the 18/19th century were involved in what is known as the "great game". This was a struggle for supremacy in Central Asia between Britain and Russia which under the Tsar was increasing its hold in Central Asia. The British outmanoeuvred the Tsar and after the YoungHusband Expedition in 1903/04 brought Tibet within their sphere of influence.Among the benefits for India was the incorporation of the North East Frontier Agency( Now Arunachal Pradesh) as part of India as well as taking over of Aksai Chin from Tibet.
This was given a legal covenant by the Simla pact of 1913. This pact demarcated the boundary between Tibet and India and also gave the British extraterritorial rights in Tibet by way of permission to maintain British Indian army troops at a number of places in Tibet.
The Beginning-Nehru's Blunders
In 1947 Nehru, the Indian prime minister inherited a rich legacy of the road to great power status. But here is the fly in the ointment. Nehru was a philosopher and unsuited to the game of great power status and the means to achieve it. He was unaware that military strength is the tool for great power status. He believed that the world is an ideal place and assumed everybody is a gentleman. these rosy ideas proved to be his undoing and at the end of his reign, he cut a sorry figure and became an object of ridicule in the world.
Nehru's first blunder was when he ordered the withdrawal of Indian troops from Tibet. The C in C at that time a British general advised Nehru against it, but he persisted and India gave up a vantage position on the Chess board of politics. Nehru thought that with the end of Imperialism, India faced no danger, but this just shows is the poor grasp of great power politics. With one blow Nehru tied one hand of the Indian people behind their back.
Worse was to follow as in 1949 the Peoples Liberation army invaded Tibet. The Dalai Lama appealed for help but Nehru despite objections from Sardar Patel did not help Tibet. The PLA overran Tibet. Instead of helping Tibet Nehru made a ludicrous statement that he recognized the suzerainty of China over Tibet and he 'expected' the Chinese to honor autonomy of Tibet. Such a statement is neither here nor there.
Nehru committed another blunder. After the lapse of British power, he should by corollary have established civil and military control over Aksai Chin and Ladakh. He did nothing and just sat, wasting time on inane matters. Unknown to him the Chinese entered the vacant land and occupied nearly 30,000 square miles of land, with New Delhi knowing nothing and being completely in the dark.
In 1959, a military platoon led by a Subedar Major was confronted by the Chinese army. The Chinese fired and killed a few Indian soldiers. That was the first that Nehru learnt that Chinese had occupied the entire Aksai Chin.He made another ludicrous statement to the effect that " not a blade of grass grows there". This was something irrelevant at that time as he had realized he had made a blunder.
China Asserts over India
Nehru tried to make amends and ordered the Indian army to set up posts in no man's lands and assert Indian rights. This was again a very silly order as the army had not been beefed up and was a neglected force. It had obsolete rifles of World war I vintage and no winter clothing. Nehru had all along neglected the Indian army and the finest military machine had gone to seed.
The Chinese were alarmed and Mao Tse Tung addressed the Central Committee of the Communist party. He informed the Central Committee that war was inevitable due to the actions of Nehru.A graphic account is given by Maxwell in his book " India's China war" as well as by Brigadier Dalvi in his book "Himalayan Blunder".
On 20th October 1962, the Chinese struck all across the Himalayas from Ladakh to NEFA. In a swift campaign the Indian army was defeated, yet in Ladakh the troops bereft of modern weapons fought heroically and even Radio Peking admitted to heavy casualties in battles at Chusal and other places.
Nehru now went into a shell and he turned to help from organizations that he had held in contempt for long like the RSS.In world politics, Indan prestige sank low and China emerged as the great Asian power.Nehru himself became the subject of ridicule and he died in 1964 a broken man who wondered, why China had spurned his hand of friendship. If he had studied world history he would have realized that great powers do not want equal friends but vassal states and Mao was not interested that India could or should be the equal of China.
Nehru's Dread
In 1947, Nehru had made a rousing speech which is even now broadcast off and on. His speech titled " India's tryst with Destiny" remained only a speech and he never followed up to make India the dominant power in Asia. His morbid fear of a military coup probably had something to do with his decision to not modernize the army and keep it at arms length. He was scared that the Indian generals would dethrone him like General Ne Win in Burma and General Ayub Khan in Pakistan. In the bargain, he sold India down the drain.
Nehru's successors had no leeway and now the Chinese began tp claim that as Tibet was an integral part of China, it claimed areas which were once part of the Tibetan Empire. Thus, the Chinese claimed the entire NEFA and Ladakh. India having been defeated could only send protests as the Chinese built a formidable military presence in Tibet.
Psychosis of Fear
The Indian leadership from that time (from the time of Nehru) has remained in awe of China. The will to match China is non-existent and overall it has been a game of surrender. An example will suffice. On a study tour of Ladakh, while undergoing the staff course at DSSC, we were surprised that the Indian army had only ONE division facing China in a holding role. The Chinese it was reported had 5/6 divisions facing India in Aksai Chin and nearly 25-30 divisions in Tibet. To my mind, the Indian government had thrown in the towel as far as China was concerned.
This state of affairs has continued even with Modi in power. Recently the US Navy had suggested joint patrolling of the South China Sea with the Indian navy. I am told Modi forbade it as it will 'Antagonize" China.Incidentally, the Vietnam government was keen that India helps them. It's about time the government at Delhi realized that China cannot be treated with kid gloves and any form of diplomacy like Modi sitting in a swing( jhoola) with President Li has no meaning. Chian is intent on being a world power and will assert itself. It will also ensure that India remains perpetually weak.
Keeping this in mind China is cultivating Pakistan. I am told by a naval officer that not only China will exert pressure along the Himalayan border but very soon will be patrolling the Indian coast abutting the Arabian Sea with Pakistan Navy. The idea is to box the Indian navy in case of a conflict. In contrast, the Modi government has developed cold feet in patrolling the South China Sea along with the US Navy despite a request from the republic of Vietnam. This shows the mindset of the Indian government. One can say that this is an ostrich-like mentality, for the gathering storm if and when it comes cannot be averted.
Throughout the last 5 decades after the death of Nehru, the successive governments have all been dominated by a fear psychosis of China. India is at the crossroads and even the BJP has not reversed the trend of Nehru of distrust of the army. How many know that the ministry of defence is itself a litigant against its own soldiers in hundreds of cases. The new defence minister Mohan Parrikar has however been seized of this problem and has instructed that such infructuous cases be withdrawn. One will have to wait and see whether this will happen or not.
Last word
The fact is as pointed out by Field Marshal Montogomery in his " History of warfare" that the Hindus lack strategic sense and are basically pacifists. This is not conducive to becoming a great power. Samrat Ashoka is an example. After the Kalinga war, he embraced pacifism and the result was that his empire collapsed in a heap within 50 years of his death. Not a legacy to be proud off. I wonder who will bell the cat?
Modi in my view is no better than other leaders before him as he has his own problems. The concept to build military power and dominate the world is just not there and worse the mettle to face China on the back burner. I wonder whether the Chinese Institute of Strategic Studies forecast of a breakup of India due to pacifism and caste contradictions will be true or not. As a nationalist one hopes India will rise like the Phoenix the mythical bird from the ashes, but presently looks highly unlikely.
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